Welcome to March! The stressful RRSP deadline is officially behind us, but the global markets certainly aren't taking a breather.

This week, we are looking at a sudden, massive shock to the global system. Geopolitical tensions have flared up over the last few days, drastically shifting the economic narrative from just a few weeks ago. Suddenly, the sectors leading the stock market are flipping upside down, and the inflation conversation is changing.

Whether you are wondering why the price at the gas pump just jumped or trying to understand how global conflicts impact your investments, we've got you covered. Let’s get to it. 🚀

What’s Happening: Over the weekend, geopolitical tensions in the Middle East escalated sharply, raising serious concerns about potential disruptions to global oil supplies passing through critical chokepoints like the Strait of Hormuz. The Strait of Hormuz is a strait between the Persian Gulf and the Gulf of Oman. It provides the only sea passage from the Persian Gulf to the open ocean.

Why it matters: Remember in mid-February when we discussed a looming oil surplus for 2026? That narrative has been violently put on hold. Brent crude oil spiked back toward $86 per barrel this week. When geopolitical fear enters the market, investors initiate a "flight to safety," rotating out of high-growth technology stocks and into defensive, hard assets.

The Contrast: We are seeing this rotation in real-time. For example, while tech giants like Alphabet (GOOGL), which has seen a highly volatile 52-week range between a low of $140.00 and a high of $340.00, face pressure in this risk-off environment, traditional safe havens are surging. Physical gold (GLD) is catching massive bids, trading near the very top of its staggering $249.00 to $426.00 52-week range.

The Takeaway: The "geopolitical risk premium" is officially back. When the world feels unstable, the market treats commodities like oil and gold as the ultimate safety nets.

What’s Happening: While global markets are flashing red due to the Middle East conflict, the Canadian stock market (the TSX) is demonstrating a unique kind of resilience.

Why it matters: The TSX is heavily weighted toward energy and mining. When global oil and gold prices surge, Canadian energy producers rake in massive revenues. This influx of capital supports the Canadian dollar and acts as a shield for our domestic stock market, keeping it afloat while other global indexes stumble.

The Double-Edged Sword: The bad news? That same expensive oil makes its way to your local gas station. If this geopolitical spike persists, it will drive up transportation costs and, consequently, food prices across Canada. This complicates the Bank of Canada's job, potentially delaying the interest rate cuts that mortgage holders have been desperately waiting for.

The Move: If your portfolio is heavily concentrated in US tech, the Canadian index might look like a smart, stabilizing diversification play during this period of uncertainty.

Exxon Mobil (XOM)

The Safe Harbour in a Geopolitical Storm

The Update

As geopolitical tensions threaten Middle Eastern oil supplies, ExxonMobil is acting as a massive shock absorber for investors. With crude prices surging this week, global oil giants are positioned to capture this sudden windfall.

Why I'm Interested

When global shipping routes are threatened, you want companies with secure, massive production outside the conflict zones. Exxon relies heavily on its booming production in the Permian Basin (US) and offshore Guyana. This means they can pump more oil into a tight market, capturing the high prices without facing the direct geographical risks of the Middle East. They are a cash-flow machine in this exact type of environment.

Morningstar Rating: ★ ★ ★

52-Week Low/High: $97.80 - $159.61

Recent Catalyst: The sudden early-March surge in WTI and Brent crude prices due to Middle East supply fears and the embedded "risk premium."

Disclaimer: This is for informational purposes only and not investment advice. Always do your own research or consult a professional before making investment decisions.

Now that the March 2nd RRSP deadline has passed, it is time to shift our focus to one of the most powerful accounts available to newcomers: The First Home Savings Account (FHSA).

The Move: Even if you don't have the cash to fund it right now, simply opening an FHSA in 2026 allows you to secure this year's $8,000 contribution room, which you can then carry forward to next year.

The Consensus: Take a deep breath! No, you did not lose your contribution room. In Canada, your unused RRSP deduction limit carries forward indefinitely. Any contributions you make now will simply be applied to your 2026 tax return (which you will file in early 2027) instead of your 2025 return. You haven't lost a single dollar of opportunity.

The Newcomer Wealth Community: Join us to unpack your specific tax strategies and get your questions answered now that the dust has settled!

See you next week!

Warmly,
Yudara Bernard
Founder, Newcomer Wealth