🌟 Editor's Note 👋
Hello friend 👋
We are entering the final stretch of February. The days are getting slightly longer, the winter boots are looking a little worse for wear, and the tax deadlines are quietly creeping closer.
This week, we are looking at two massive economic forces pulling in different directions: the global energy market, which is undergoing a massive shift, and our own Canadian inflation numbers, which finally gave us some much-needed good news.
Whether you are watching the geopolitical chessboard or just trying to figure out your grocery budget, everything is connected. While everyone else gets distracted by the noise, we focus on the numbers. Let’s get to it. 🚀
🌍🔭 The Global Viewpoint 🌍🔭
The Great Rebalancing: Black Gold vs. Real Gold
What’s Happening: The latest February 2026 reports from the International Energy Agency (IEA) and the U.S. Energy Information Administration (EIA) just dropped, and they paint a fascinating picture. Global oil production is officially on track to outpace demand in 2026.
Why it matters: We are so used to hearing about oil shortages and price spikes that a surplus feels strange. But right now, global inventories are rising. The EIA forecasts that Brent crude oil prices will actually fall to an average of $58 per barrel this year.
The Contrast: The divergence in the commodities market right now is striking. While physical gold (GLD) continues to shine—sporting a massive 52-week range between a low of $249.00 and a high of $426.00—"black gold" (oil) is facing severe downward pressure due to massive supply growth from non-OPEC+ countries.
The Takeaway: Lower oil prices act as a global tax cut. It makes shipping cheaper, manufacturing less expensive, and puts money back into your pocket at the gas pump. However, if your portfolio is heavily weighted in traditional energy ETFs, you might want to review your exposure to ensure you are positioned for this dip.
🇨🇦📈 Top Story: Canadian Market Pulse 🇨🇦📈
The 2.3% Victory: Inflation Cools, but Food Bites
What’s Happening: Statistics Canada released the January 2026 Consumer Price Index (CPI) on February 17th, and the headline number was a pleasant surprise: Headline inflation slowed to 2.3% year-over-year.
Why it matters for newcomers:
The Gas Station Discount: The biggest factor pulling inflation down was a massive 16.7% year-over-year drop in gasoline prices.
Shelter Relief: For the first time in nearly five years, shelter cost growth fell below 2.0% (landing at 1.7%). Easing mortgage interest costs are finally making a dent.
The Reality Check: While the headline looks great to the Bank of Canada, anyone who has walked into a grocery store recently knows the pain isn't completely over. Food inflation remains a sore spot. The "official" numbers are cooling, but your personal inflation rate might still feel high depending on what you buy.
The Move: With core inflation nearing the Bank of Canada's 2% target, the case for further interest rate cuts is strengthening. If you have a variable-rate mortgage or are looking to enter the housing market this spring, the macroeconomic winds are finally shifting in your favour.
🚀 Stocks on My Radar: Yudara's Watchlist 🕵️♀️ 📊
Curious about specific companies making waves? Here is a stock I'm keeping a close eye on this week, and why it's caught my attention
Occidental Petroleum (OXY)
Producing More With Less
The Update (Earnings Recap)
Occidental just reported its Q4 2025 earnings this week, and it was a masterclass in operational efficiency. Despite oil prices slumping during the quarter, OXY blew past Wall Street's earnings estimates, posting adjusted earnings of $0.31 per share versus the expected $0.17.
Why I'm Interested
Occidental is proving that it doesn't need $80 oil to print cash. They cut their capital expenditure budget for 2026, yet they still expect to grow production to 1.45 million barrels of oil equivalent per day. That means massive free cash flow, even if oil prices continue to drop.
Morningstar Rating: ★ ★ ★★
52-Week High/Low: $52.58 - $34.78
Recent Catalyst: The massive Q4 earnings beat, and their guidance for 2026 proves their operations are a "well-oiled machine." They also just raised their dividend by 8%.
Disclaimer: This is for informational purposes only and not investment advice. Always do your own research or consult a professional before making investment decisions.
💡 Newcomer Financial Fundamentals 💡
This week's focus: The Golden Ticket (Your NOA) 🎫
Since we are heading deep into tax season, there is one document you need to understand above all others: The Notice of Assessment (NOA).
What is it? After you file your Canadian tax return and the CRA processes it, they send you an NOA. It is essentially your official "receipt" from the government.
Why is it important?
The Bottom Line: It confirms if you owe money or are getting a refund.
The RRSP Magic Number: It explicitly states your exact RRSP deduction limit for the next year. (Never guess this number! If you over-contribute, the CRA will penalize you 1% per month on the excess amount.)
Note: If you earned less than $50 in interest, the bank might not send you a T5, but you still have to report the income!
Proof of Income: If you want to get a mortgage or a major loan, Canadian lenders will almost always ask for your last two NOAs.
The Move: When you get your NOA this spring (either in the mail or via your CRA My Account), do not throw it in a drawer. Save a digital PDF copy in a secure folder on your computer. You will need it later.
🔥 Community Corner: Connect & Grow! 🤝🌱
"Should I panic-fund my RRSP before March 2nd?"
Many newcomers are asking whether they should empty their savings to hit their RRSP contribution limit before the 2025 tax deadline.
The consensus? Don't let the calendar rush you into a bad financial decision. If your income was relatively low in 2025 (which is very common during your first few years in Canada), saving that contribution room for a future year when you are in a much higher tax bracket might actually save you more money in the long run.
The Newcomer Wealth Community: Join us to unpack and get your specific questions answered. Join our community page! 🧭
Need Personalized Guidance? For those deeper, one-on-one questions about your specific situation (TFSAs, RRSPs, FHSA, RESP, credit cards, or anything else!), I offer personalized 45-minute coaching sessions. Learn more and book your spot! 💬
See you next week!
Warmly,
Yudara Bernard
Founder, Newcomer Wealth
Disclaimer: The information provided in this newsletter is for educational and informational purposes only and does not constitute financial, investment, or other professional advice. Always consult a qualified financial advisor for personalized advice tailored to your specific circumstances. Investing involves risk.